The Mets Trio and Its Future.
Updated: Dec 1, 2025
The Mets Young Core and the Team's Future Going into 2026, the New York Mets will rely heavily on their young pitching core of Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong. After missing the playoffs in 2025 with an 83-79 record and struggling to get innings from their arms, resulting in an ERA+ of exactly 100, their pitching was not up to par with what the organization envisions for its future. However, there is a bright outlook ahead. To delve deeper into their 2025 rotation, only three pitchers crossed the century mark for innings: David Peterson (168.2 innings with a 4.22 ERA), Clay Holmes (165.2 innings with a 3.53 ERA), and Kodai Senga (3.02 ERA). After this trio, the next closest was Griffin Canning, with just 76.1 innings pitched. Although this past year fell short of the Mets' pitching expectations, the future holds promise. This article will focus on the young core trio of Brandon Sproat (Mets #5 prospect), Jonah Tong (MLB #46 and Mets #4), and headliner Nolan McLean (MLB #11 and Mets #1).
Before diving into this young core, let's first take a look at the other pitchers. Fangraphs projects David Peterson, Clay Holmes, and Sean Manaea to account for 55% of the innings with the current construct of this team. While I believe the Mets will be on the hunt for one of the top free agents in the market, like Cease, Suarez, Valdez, and King, their rotation is in an acceptable spot. David Peterson is projected to be the team's ace, coming off a solid last two seasons, highlighted by a standout 2024 in which he pitched 121 innings with a 2.90 ERA and earned his first All-Star Game nod. The concerning aspect for Peterson is that his expected stats have not been favorable, particularly in xERA and several percentage stats like chase and whiff rates. The second half of Peterson's year reflected these metrics as he experienced a drop-off in performance. The hope is for Peterson to find consistency and replicate his mid-2024 to mid-2025 performances to remain a reliable starter for the Mets.
Now, regarding Clay Holmes, the former Yankee turned starter had a solid debut season for the Mets, pitching 165.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA. This was also by far the most innings Holmes has thrown in his professional career. Analyzing his savant data, we see a sharp drop-off in his breaking ball's run value from positive 6 to negative 7. In contrast, his fastball's run value shifted from negative 3 to a significant positive 14. The Mets and Clay Holmes developed a new changeup, particularly to use against left-handed hitters, which yielded an above-average 2-run value. The organization is optimistic about a dominant season from Holmes and a bounce-back in most pitching percentile rankings, thanks to his resurgence in fastball value and the new offspeed pitch while hoping for a return to the breaking ball value that has arguably been his best pitch in recent years.
Turning to Sean Manaea, after recovering from the IL to start the
year, he showed promise in July, with four straight appearances allowing just one run each. However, things deteriorated quickly thereafter, as the following two months were challenging, and he didn't complete more than 1.2 innings in his last outing of the season. While it was undoubtedly an unproductive year for the left-hander, signs of future success remain, as he posted a league-average 3.93 xERA alongside high strikeout-to-ball ratios and chase percentages. The main issue last year was a significant drop in fastball run value, plummeting from an almost league-leading 23 in 2024 to a barely average 3 run value. Although a 3 run value isn't inherently poor, combined with declines in breaking and offspeed values that were already below league average, it does not bode well for success. So, what does his path to success look like? It begins with limiting home runs. I expect him to regress closer to his career mean, potentially yielding fewer homers than last year’s percentage, where he allowed 13 homers with a 10.1 xHR. Even if he hits his expected rate of 10, that number would still be higher than an acceptable threshold for success.
Following a solid year for Senga, where he pitched to a 3.02 ERA
over 113.1 innings, he produced well for the Mets, registering a 2.1 WAR. After experiencing an injury-plagued 2024 in which he made only one start and finished with 5.1 innings, Senga managed to pitch 5 more innings during the playoffs, although he struggled during that time, giving up 7 runs. The 2025 season was productive for him; however, concerns linger about Senga's future, as he has thrown only around 120 innings over the past two years, accompanying several injuries and poor run values in metrics such as fastball and breaking ball. His strikeout rate also decreased from 10.9 SO/9 in 2023 to 8.7 in 2025, accompanied by a concerning 11.4% walk rate. Despite these issues, Senga has proven capable when healthy, posting a 3 ERA over 285 career innings with 320 strikeouts. A significant portion of these strikeouts came from his impressive forkball, which boasted an xSLG of .206 and accounted for 71 strikeouts last year alone. The hope for Senga and the Mets is that he can have a healthy season and restore his fastball run value back to the upper percentile.
The Mets Young Core
The Mets have struggled in the pitching department over the last few years since the departure of future Hall of Famer Jacob deGrom. Looking to flip this switch, the Mets have done an incredible job of developing three great young talents in McLean, Tong, and Sprout. These three pitchers will likely be necessary this upcoming season as the Mets have a long list of departures via free agency. In the rest of this article, I will outline how crucial these three pitchers will be to the Mets' success and what my predictions are for their future outlook.
Nolan McLean
Starting with the pitcher who is most likely to make a major impact next year, Nolan McLean is a 24-year-old right-hander out of Oklahoma State. He stands at 6’2”, weighs 214 pounds, and is ranked as the Mets' No. 1 prospect in their system as well as 11th in the top 100. McLean pitched the most out of the three, logging 48 innings last year with a 2.06 ERA and 57 strikeouts. While not qualified for most statcast data, most of his numbers are above average and extremely good coming into his rookie season. McLean employs a six-pitch mix that includes a sinker, sweeper, curveball, four-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter (listed in order of usage). He uses all pitches against left-handed hitters, with usage rates ranging from 22% for his sinker to 13% for his cutter; however, he does not use his changeup and cutter against right-handed hitters.
What Caused McLean’s 2025 Success?
Nolan McLean’s savant movement profile is a thing of beauty. Leaning into a low arm slot has worked well for him due to his ability to spin the ball at a high level, producing great lateral movement. The arm angle of 27 degrees, combined with his 3.64 feet of ball release towards the third base side of the rubber (the widest for a right-hander with his number of pitches), produces his very east-west movement profile.
Another significant stat for McLean was his high curveball spin rate, averaging 3,267 RPM and edging out pitchers like Ryan Pressly and former Met Seth Lugo. McLean’s curveball, thrown at 80 mph, averages over -18 inches of break, matched only by Phil Maton and Landon Roupp. McLean also features a sweeper, which makes up 26% of his arsenal and 32% against right-handed hitters. This pitch is thrown harder than his curveball at 85.3 mph, averaging 13 inches of less depth than the curveball, giving it that “sweeping shape.” He utilizes two arm-side pitches with his seam-shifted sinker and kick changeup. His sinker mirrors his sweeper, averaging 16 inches of arm-side run and being thrown at an average of 94.8 mph. His changeup, thrown around 9% of the time, has the same horizontal break as the sinker with around 12 inches of depth and experiences a 9 mph drop-off to 86.8 mph. As for his fastball, though he's only throwing it at a 13% clip, it's still an effective pitch, averaging 95.8 mph and topping out at 98.4 mph. He threw 98 fastballs last year, resulting in a .154 batting average (BA) and a .154 slugging percentage (SLG). The expected data shows a .191 BA and .266 SLG, showing only a slight difference that shouldn't raise concern. He also threw 63 cutters last year and was better than expected, posting a .250 SLG compared to an expected .337. While this discrepancy is notable, his cutter is not a primary pitch, which shouldn't be a cause for much concern regarding his future.
What Could McLean's Future Look Like?
McLean’s future is definitely very bright, as he has achieved success at every level he has played, including this year in the big leagues. Fangraphs projects McLean to take a leap into the starting rotation, making 28 starts but slightly declining to a 3.76 ERA. However, Fangraphs typically projects higher ERAs than what most people would expect each pitcher to produce; for example, Paul Skenes is projected at a 2.91 and Skubal even at 2.80. While I don’t anticipate McLean to become the caliber of pitcher like Skubal or Skenes immediately, he does possess the makeup to be dominant. Baseball Reference has a projection for next year, estimating that he will pitch 84.0 innings with a 3.32 ERA; while I disagree with the expected innings, the other stats align with my expectations. Based on Savant's similar pitchers, he resembles Dustin May, Zack Wheeler, Tanner Houck, Brandon Sproat, and Logan Webb, with May and Wheeler being the closest.
I’m projecting Nolan McLean to log around 160 innings while settling into a weekly rotation role and posting an ERA near 3.00, a profile comparable to Dustin May’s 2023 campaign or Tanner Houck’s 2024 season. A season like that would firmly cement McLean in a big-league rotation and mark a clear, long-term step forward in his development. His upside is substantial; at his best, he could produce multiple seasons of high-level production reminiscent of Zack Wheeler’s recent run in Philadelphia from 2020 to 2025. Using Wheeler as a ceiling, McLean’s repertoire and projection suggest he has the command and pitch mix to sustain above-average results over several years. More conservatively, his projection aligns more closely with pitchers such as Logan Webb, whose recent success highlights how polished command and sequencing can yield consistent outcomes even without elite velocity. If McLean combines improved innings durability with continued refinement of his secondary offerings, he could deliver a multi-year stretch as a frontline or high-end mid-rotation starter, providing the Mets with a dependable arm and significant upside in the future.
Jonah Tong
Now, going to the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year, Jonah Tong. The 22-year-old right-hander stands at 6'1" and weighs 180 pounds. He is ranked as the Mets' No. 4 prospect in their system and is also 43rd in the top 100 by MLB Pipeline. Tong had a historically dominant minor league season, leading all minor league pitchers with a 1.43 ERA and 179 strikeouts across 113.2 innings pitched in Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse in 2025. However, he struggled in a late-season call-up to the majors, posting a 7.71 ERA in 18.2 innings pitched.
Tong's game revolves around his unique, over-the-top delivery, which is currently the highest in baseball at 64 degrees, and an elite four-seam fastball that features exceptional induced vertical break,
making its average velocity of 90-94 mph play well above its raw speed. He primarily uses a four-pitch mix: a fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. The changeup, which he throws with a "Vulcan" grip, has developed into his best secondary offering and is highly effective against left-handed hitters. While he uses all his pitches, his combination of fastball and changeup is particularly potent. Tong's potential hinges on improving his fringe-average control, but his unique arsenal and impressive minor league track record suggest he could become a key component of the Mets' rotation in the near future.
Jonah Tong’s Savant Movement Profile
Tong's game is built on deception and vertical movement, stemming from a unique, nearly straight over-the-top arm slot and a delivery often compared to that of former Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum.
Four-Seam Fastball: Jonah Tong uses his fastball the majority of the time, at a rate of 57.4% in the majors, averaging 95.2 mph and topping out at 98.4 mph. The best aspect of his fastball is his ability to generate great vertical movement. His induced vertical movement of 19.8 would place him second only to Alex Vesia of the Dodgers (if qualified).
Changeup: Tong's changeup averages 85.8 mph and was thrown 27.5% of the time. He used this pitch 102 times in the big leagues, and it was his main go-to putaway pitch after his fastball in the minors. In the minor leagues, he utilized his changeup and only gave up two hits (according to recorded Savant MILB data).
Curveball/Slider: He also mixes in a mid-to-upper 70s downer curveball with extreme vertical depth, featuring over 65 inches of drop in the minors, and a low-80s slider that was used less frequently than his main two pitches.
What could Tong’s future look like?
While Jonah Tong may not have the same upside as Nolan McLean, he has the potential to cement himself in the Mets' rotation in the near future. Fangraphs projects him to log only 44 innings next year, which I think is a reasonable estimate. Currently, the Mets have five starters in their projections, including McLean. I anticipate that they will pursue an additional starter, which could push either Manaea or Holmes into the sixth spot, ultimately leaving Tong in the seventh spot or starting the season in the minors. For the upcoming year, I expect Tong to make around 8 to 10 starts later in the season, either to support the rotation during injuries or to prepare for the playoffs. In those appearances, I anticipate better results compared to his 2025 season, aligning more closely with his expected statistics. Therefore, I project him to accumulate around 50 innings with an ERA around 4.00 and over a strikeout per nine innings. This is largely in line with the Steamer projection of 44.0 innings and a 3.69 ERA. After the 2026 season, as he gains more starts, I expect to see a shift in his performance closer to the impressive minor league stats that have established him as a top prospect.
So who is Tong comparable to?
Jonah Tong possesses movement profiles that are similar to those of future Hall of Fame pitcher Justin Verlander and recent rookie Mike Burrows. Based on Tong's movement profiles, I foresee a career trajectory akin to Verlander's recent years, where Tong could maintain a high ERA in the 2s to a low 4, similar to Burrows' performance in the 2025 season. While Tong may not reach the peak seasons of Justin Verlander, he still has time to develop his skills to match Verlander's. This could lead to an impressive run with the Mets over the next 5-6 years. Overall, Tong represents another young player for the Mets with a positive outlook, even after a challenging stretch in 2025. His movement profile and minor league success suggest that he has the potential to thrive in the MLB for years to come.
Brandon Sproat
Our final pitcher is Brandon Sproat, the Mets' No. 5 overall prospect and their third-ranked pitching prospect. The 6'3", 215-pound right-hander was drafted in the second round of the 2023 MLB Draft (56th overall) out of the University of Florida. He has developed a reputation for having a repeatable arm action and the ability to induce swings and misses with both his fastball and sharp breaking ball.
After signing, Sproat made a limited appearance in the big leagues, logging 20 2/3 innings over four games with a respectable 4.79 ERA and a 0–2 record. Beyond that brief stint, he spent the bulk of the season with Triple-A Syracuse, appearing in 26 games and accumulating 121 innings while recording a 4.24 ERA.
Sproat Release angleBrandon Sproat’s movement and pitch profile suggest he has the potential to be a starter with a high swing-and-miss capability if he can tighten his command. Working from a relatively higher three-quarter arm slot compared to some of the Mets’ more crossfire pitchers like Mclean and Manaea, Sproat’s release creates an effective plane that enhances the performance of his fastball and breaking ball.
Arm Slot and Release: Sproat’s arm angle is slightly lower than league average at 33 degrees, which is comparable to Chris Bassitt and Sandy Alcantara (each at 32 degrees). Combined with a solid release point that is slightly towards the third base side but still close enough to the middle, this allows his sinker to remain in the strike zone longer, effectively limiting barrel hits.
Fastball: Sproat utilizes two types of fastballs, with his sinker being the primary choice. He throws his sinker 34% of the time overall and 52% against right-handed hitters, averaging 94-97 mph and reaching a top speed of 99 mph. The movement on his sinker is impressive, showing 16.7 inches of horizontal break (1.6 inches above average) and 7.0 inches of vertical break (0.4 inches above average). Although it recorded a negative 1 run value in the MLB last year, I expect improvement for this pitch next season. His four-seam fastball, used 13.8% of the time, topped out at 99.0 mph and averages 96.7 mph, with 14.3 inches of vertical break and 8.1 inches of arm-side horizontal break, giving it a positive run value of 1 during his 20 innings pitched.
Breaking Ball: Sproat's most frequently used breaking ball is a sweeper, accounting for 19% of his pitches. It was arguably his best pitch last year, boasting a positive run value of +2, a .153 wOBA, and a 34.6% whiff rate. He achieves this with a 13.8 inches of horizontal break (GLV IHB) and 4.7 inches of vertical break (IVB), creating a significant right-to-left movement. Alongside the sweeper, he also throws a curveball 15% of the time. The curveball averages 79.9 mph, down from the 84.5 mph of his sweeper. While the curveball has slightly less horizontal break with 12.2 inches of IHB, it features a substantial increase in vertical break at -10.7 IVB, resulting in a 14-inch difference in movement compared to his sweeper.
Changeup & Secondary Mix: Sproat incorporates a changeup about 14.8% of the time, which performed well in 2025, achieving a positive run value of +1. It has an impressive movement profile with 3.9 inches of IVB and a great 15.9 inches of IHB to the arm side. Coming in at 90.2 mph, Sproat's changeup is one of the hardest in the game.
What Can We Expect from Sproat in the Future?
I believe we can expect a lot from Brandon Sproat in the next couple of years. Fangraphs projects Sproat to pitch in 22 games next year, making 10 starts and coming out of the bullpen 12 times. In those 67 innings, he is expected to have a 4.14 ERA and a 4.33 FIP. I find these projections realistic and in line with my own expectations. Looking ahead to the next 4-5 years, I see incredible upside in Sproat, as he has the potential to lead the Mets' rotation in the future. When we compare Sproat’s speed and movement profile with other players, his closest matches are Zack Wheeler and Bryan Woo. If Sproat can replicate the success that Zack Wheeler has had, he could easily take over the ace spot in the coming years. Based on Bryan Woo’s projections of 195 innings with a 3.59 ERA—and considering his recent performances with a sub-2 ERA—it's reasonable to anticipate that Sproat could soon achieve similar results.
How Can Sproat Exceed Expectations?
I believe Sproat has the potential to be the best pitcher out of the Mets' incoming young core. For him to reach the next level, he needs to improve his K/BB ratio and enhance his rate statistics like K/9 and BB/9. We saw Bryan Woo make significant strides in 2024 compared to 2023; his walk percentage was cut from 8.4% to 2.8%. Even with a slight drop in his strikeout percentage, Woo's ability to limit runners on base greatly improved his overall performance. Last year, Woo increased his K-BB percentage to 22.2%, which is double Sproat’s 11.9% from the same season. Another critical statistic for Sproat's success is his barrel percentage. In 2025, he had an impressive barrel percentage of 3.4%, ranking among the best in the game, even better than both Woo and Wheeler. To elevate his role to that of the ace for the Mets, Sproat needs to improve his K-BB percentage, which will help him build upon his performance next season.
Conclusions
For the 2026 Mets and beyond, the team faces a crossroads between its veteran players and its young pitching core. While the current rotation offers short-term stability—assuming an acquisition in free agency—the long-term promise lies with the young core of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat. This trio provides the Mets with a controllable and internal means to build rotation depth and supplement the staff through free agency or trades. New York can realistically expect a rotation that balances veteran stability with the opportunity to develop talented players. Overall, the 2026 season will be pivotal in determining how this young core establishes itself in the daily rotation or compels the front office and owner Steve Cohen to take aggressive action in the next off season strategy.
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