Padres vs. Brewers NLDS: The Pitching Paths to Victory

The Padres and Brewers enter the 2026 NLDS with opposite pitching identities. Milwaukee has the National League’s most dominant frontline arm in Jacob Misiorowski, a 103-win team, home-field advantage, and a staff built to create matchup problems after the fifth inning. San Diego arrives after sweeping the Cubs in the Wild Card Series, carrying momentum but also a less settled starting-pitching structure after using important arms in the opening round.

Milwaukee has formally aligned Misiorowski for Game 1 and Logan Henderson for Game 2. San Diego is expected to answer with Walker Buehler or Robbie Ray in Game 1, Michael King in Game 2, and Nick Pivetta in Game 3. The Brewers’ remaining games could become a mixture of Robert Gasser, an opener, and bullpen-heavy tactics, while the Padres have the chance to shorten the series with King and Pivetta after surviving the opening Misiorowski matchup.

The Brewers host Games 1 and 2 at American Family Field. The series shifts to Petco Park for Games 3 and 4, then returns to Milwaukee for Game 5 if necessary.

Series at a glance

Game Date Site Padres starter Brewers starter Projection

1 Oct. 3 American Family Field Walker Buehler Jacob Misiorowski Brewers 4, Padres 1

2 Oct. 4 American Family Field Michael King Logan Henderson Padres 3, Brewers 2

3 Oct. 6 Petco Park Nick Pivetta Robert Gasser Padres 4, Brewers 3

4 Oct. 7 Petco Park Robbie Ray Bullpen game Brewers 5, Padres 3

5 Oct. 9 American Family Field Michael King Jacob Misiorowski Brewers 3, Padres 2

Game 1: Misiorowski sets the series tone

Projected score: Brewers 4, Padres 1

Milwaukee’s Game 1 strategy starts and ends with Misiorowski. He led the majors with a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts, and a .157 opponent batting average, making him the defining pitching story of the 2026 regular season. The Padres know what is coming: elite velocity, a swing-and-miss breaking ball, and an ability to bury hitters once he gets ahead. The challenge is making him pitch under pressure rather than allowing him to dictate every at-bat.

San Diego’s expected Game 1 answer is Buehler. His 4.63 ERA and 4.51 FIP point to a much thinner margin for error against Milwaukee’s athletic, contact-oriented offense. The Padres do not need Buehler to match Misiorowski inning for inning. They need him to limit the Brewers’ running game, avoid a damaging first inning, and keep the score close enough for their bullpen to matter.

Padres’ path

The Padres must make Misiorowski work from the stretch. The best offensive approach is not chasing velocity above the zone or trying to pull every fastball. San Diego has to create long at-bats, take walks if Misiorowski loses his release point, and attack the few fastballs that stay middle-middle.

The Padres should also prioritize contact with runners on base. Misiorowski will strike out hitters. That is unavoidable. But a single, a stolen base, and a well-placed line drive can do more damage than trying to produce one three-run homer against the hardest pitcher in the league to square up.

Buehler’s job is to use experience and sequencing. He needs to throw first-pitch strikes, keep the ball away from the middle of the zone, and avoid letting Milwaukee’s speed turn a walk into an immediate scoring threat. If he can reach the fifth inning with the game tied or within one run, San Diego’s bullpen can make the final innings uncomfortable.

Predicted Padres starting pitcher line:

Walker Buehler — 5.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Brewers’ path

The Brewers should make the game simple. Let Misiorowski attack the strike zone with his best stuff, then use their bullpen before the Padres’ lineup gets a third look. Milwaukee’s offense needs to create activity early against Buehler. It does not have to wait for the long ball. It can win through pressure, taking extra bases, exploiting defensive movement, and forcing Buehler to make high-leverage pitches to every part of the order.

The Brewers also need to be disciplined against Buehler’s breaking pitches. He is most dangerous when hitters chase outside the zone. If Milwaukee forces him to throw strikes, it can produce the one multi-run inning needed behind Misiorowski.

Predicted Brewers starting pitcher line:

Jacob Misiorowski — 6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K

Predicted score:

Brewers 4, Padres 1

Game 2: King gives San Diego its best response

Projected score: Padres 3, Brewers 2

Game 2 is the Padres’ swing game. Michael King is expected to start after a 12–10, 3.21 ERA regular season. His overall numbers do not match Misiorowski’s, but King’s pitch mix and ability to miss bats give San Diego a chance to control a low-scoring game at American Family Field.

Henderson was outstanding in his first full major-league season, going 11–3 with a 2.47 ERA. But this is also his first October appearance. The Padres’ best chance is to make the young right-hander handle the emotional and tactical pressure of a lineup that will not allow him easy strikeouts.

Padres’ path

King needs to prevent Milwaukee from building innings through walks and baserunning. The Brewers do not need several hard-hit balls to score. They can turn a leadoff walk, a stolen base, and a ground ball into a high-leverage at-bat quickly.

King should attack the strike zone with his sinker and four-seamer, then use his breaking pitches only after establishing strike one. His goal is to generate weak contact early and save his strikeout pitches for moments with runners in scoring position.

San Diego’s hitters should force Henderson to use his secondary pitches for strikes. They cannot let him work entirely off his fastball and get chase swings with two strikes. If the Padres can extend at-bats, reach the middle innings with Henderson near 80 pitches, and expose Milwaukee’s bullpen before the late innings, the matchup becomes much closer.

Predicted Padres starting pitcher line:

Michael King — 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Brewers’ path

Milwaukee needs to avoid letting King establish a predictable two-strike sequence. The Brewers should attack any early-count sinker that leaks over the plate, especially with runners aboard. Their offense is most dangerous when it forces the defense to react: bunts, hit-and-runs, stolen-base pressure, and line drives into the gaps.

Henderson does not need to outpitch King in every inning. He only needs to give Milwaukee five competitive frames before the bullpen takes over. The Brewers should have their leverage arms ready as soon as the Padres’ lineup begins to get repeat looks at his fastball.

Predicted Brewers starting pitcher line:

Logan Henderson — 5.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Predicted score:

Padres 3, Brewers 2

Game 3: Pivetta changes the matchup

Projected score: Padres 4, Brewers 3

The series shifts to Petco Park tied 1–1, and San Diego’s best opportunity to take control is Nick Pivetta. His 2.86 ERA and 2.21 FIP in 2026 suggest his regular-season performance was real, not simply the product of good fortune. If he gives the Padres six innings at home, San Diego can take a 2–1 lead and turn Game 4 into Milwaukee’s elimination game.

Milwaukee’s projected starter is Gasser, though the Brewers are expected to remain flexible. Gasser posted a 3.87 ERA, but Milwaukee could use an opener or build the game around multiple relievers because its staff has experience with postseason matchup management. The Brewers used openers frequently in the prior postseason, and their roster construction gives Pat Murphy multiple left-handed and right-handed relief options.

Padres’ path

Pivetta’s role is to challenge Milwaukee without becoming overly dependent on strikeouts. The Brewers will try to force long innings, put runners in motion, and make San Diego defend. Pivetta must establish the fastball for strikes, use the breaking ball to steal outs, and avoid issuing free passes in front of Milwaukee’s best contact hitters.

The Padres should attack Gasser quickly. A left-hander with modest strikeout certainty cannot be allowed to settle into a comfortable rhythm at Petco Park. San Diego needs to force long counts, look for a first-inning advantage, and make Milwaukee decide whether to sacrifice bullpen depth early.

Predicted Padres starting pitcher line:

Nick Pivetta — 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

Brewers’ path

Milwaukee’s Game 3 route is an opener-style game. Rather than asking Gasser to navigate the Padres’ heart of the order three times, the Brewers should use him for the best portion of the matchup and change pitchers quickly. The more different looks Milwaukee can give San Diego, the more difficult it becomes for the Padres to create consistent timing.

Offensively, the Brewers have to attack Pivetta before he reaches two strikes. His FIP suggests he has the quality to dominate if hitters are passive. Milwaukee should force him into fastball counts, avoid expanding against the slider, and take every chance to use its speed once runners get on base.

Predicted Brewers starting pitcher line:

Robert Gasser — 4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K

Predicted score:

Padres 4, Brewers 3

Game 4: Milwaukee’s bullpen test

Projected score: Brewers 5, Padres 3

Game 4 would be the Brewers’ survival game in this projection. The most likely path is a bullpen game or a starter-receiver plan led by left-handed options such as Aaron Ashby, DL Hall, Kyle Harrison, or Shane Drohan, with the exact alignment depending on the Game 3 workload. Milwaukee’s depth lets it create a game in which San Diego cannot settle into one pitcher’s pattern.

San Diego’s likely starter is Robbie Ray. Ray gives the Padres a high-strikeout left-handed option, but he must control the zone. The Brewers are built to punish walks and turn every mistake into a multi-run inning through pressure. Ray’s ceiling can win a postseason game; his command risk can also shorten the start quickly.

Padres’ path

Ray must attack without overthrowing. Milwaukee will look to take close pitches, work into advantage counts, and force him to use his fastball in the strike zone. His best version is built on first-pitch strikes, sliders below the zone after getting ahead, and enough fastball command to avoid predictable sequences.

San Diego’s hitters should remain patient against Milwaukee’s reliever parade. The Brewers will try to steal outs through platoon matchups and prevent the Padres’ best bats from seeing the same pitcher twice. The Padres must avoid expanding the strike zone simply because a new pitcher enters every inning.

Predicted Padres starting pitcher line:

Robbie Ray — 5.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K

Brewers’ path

Milwaukee should make Game 4 uncomfortable from the first inning. Start with an opener or short-burst left-hander, then build the game around matchup choices. The goal is not to get seven innings from one pitcher. The goal is to prevent Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and the middle of the Padres’ order from seeing any arm multiple times in a predictable spot.

At the plate, Milwaukee must attack Ray’s fastball early if he misses over the plate. The Brewers should not chase the slider in the dirt. If they make Ray throw strikes and reach the bullpen by the sixth inning, their lineup has enough balance to create the deciding inning.

Predicted Brewers opening pitcher line:

Aaron Ashby — 2.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Predicted score:

Brewers 5, Padres 3

Game 5: Misiorowski against King

Projected score: Brewers 3, Padres 2

A Game 5 in Milwaukee would bring the series back to its defining advantage: Misiorowski on regular rest at American Family Field. The Brewers’ decision to use him in Game 1 is designed for this possibility. Their ace can return for the season’s biggest start, while San Diego likely returns to King after his Game 2 appearance.

Padres’ path

King must keep the game quiet early. Milwaukee’s home crowd and Misiorowski’s presence will create immediate pressure. The Padres cannot let the Brewers produce a first-inning run and turn the game into a chase against the league’s most dominant starter.

King needs to fill the strike zone, use his full pitch mix, and work efficiently enough to get through six innings. San Diego’s offense must become more patient than it was in Game 1. The Padres cannot chase high velocity out of the zone and hope for one home run. They need walks, line-drive contact, and a plan to force Misiorowski out before he reaches the seventh inning.

Predicted Padres starting pitcher line:

Michael King — 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Brewers’ path

Milwaukee’s formula is familiar: let Misiorowski attack, score early, and hand a lead to the bullpen. But Game 5 requires an adjustment. The Padres will have seen him once already and will be better prepared for his velocity. Misiorowski must use his secondary pitches early enough to keep hitters from sitting dead red on the fastball.

The Brewers should not ask Misiorowski to throw 120 pitches. Six dominant innings is enough if Milwaukee has the lead. The bullpen can then use its matchup depth to navigate the final nine outs.

Predicted Brewers starting pitcher line:

Jacob Misiorowski — 6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

Predicted score:

Brewers 3, Padres 2

Final prediction

The Padres have enough starting-pitching depth to take a game from Milwaukee and enough bullpen strength to make a short series uncomfortable. King and Pivetta provide credible answers after Game 1, and Petco Park gives San Diego a real opportunity to steal both home games.

But the Brewers have the most important advantage in the series: Misiorowski is the best pitcher either club can use, and Milwaukee has him set up for both Game 1 and a possible Game 5. His 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts, and .157 opponent average give the Brewers the highest ceiling of any team in the National League field.

Brewers win the series, 3 games to 2.

Milwaukee’s most likely route is winning Game 1 behind Misiorowski, splitting Games 2 and 3, surviving the bullpen-heavy Game 4 in San Diego, and handing the ball back to Misiorowski for a Game 5 clincher.