The Bubba Chandler Breakout
Intro
The Pirates' 24-year-old is righty primed for a huge breakout year in 2027. Standing at 6-3, 206lbs from Lawrenceville, GA, Bubba Chandler was drafted by the Pirates in 2021 in the 3rd round. 2027 will be his 3rd year in the big leagues, and his 2nd full season. Chandler showed promise in his debut year after his call up in late August of 2025, throwing to a 4.02 ERA across 31.1 innings, with great peripherals like xERA of 3.66
and a FIP of 2.66. In 2026 Bubba Chandler continued to show promise of a developing star, showing flashes of elite level pitching during the year. During Chandlers best stretch of the year he threw to a turn of a 4.01 ERA across 18 starts and 94.1 innings pitched. While not the all star level arm I am projecting, it was highlighted by a great month of august. Where he pitched to a 3.08 ERA across 26 and ⅓ innings, after adding a kick-change into the arsenal.
Result | Game | Decision | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | BF | ERA | FIP | |
Total | 10-8 | 18 | W-L:6-3 | 94.1 | 83 | 46 | 41 | 7 | 38 | 83 | 6 | 398 | 3.91 | 3.71 |
per Game | .556 | 1.0 | .667% | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 22.1 | 3.91 | 3.71 |
per 162 Games | 90-72 | 68.0 | W-L:23-11 | 355.5 | 313.6 | 173.8 | 154.9 | 26.4 | 143.6 | 313.6 | 22.7 | 1503.6 | 3.91 | 3.71 |
(Via Baseball Reference - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=chandbu01&t=p&year=2026 )
JUST AUGUST
Result | Games | Dec | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | BF | ERA | FIP | |
Total | 3-2 | 5 | W-L:3-1 | 26.1 | 19 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 24 | 1 | 106 | 3.08 | 3.14 |
per Game | .600 | 1.0 | .750% | 5.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 21.2 | 3.08 | 3.14 |
per 162 gms | 97-65 | 68.0 | W-L:41-14 | 355.0 | 258.4 | 149.6 | 122.4 | 13.6 | 149.6 | 326.4 | 13.6 | 1441.6 | 3.08 | 3.14 |
(Via Baseball Reference)
Diving Into Savant and Pitch Usage
Bubba Chandler’s underlying profile is built on premium fastball traits, but his 2026 season showed that raw stuff alone was not enough to sustain elite results. His four-seamer averaged 98.2 mph, sat in the 95th percentile for velocity in 2026 and 98th in 2025, and paired 17.3 inches of induced vertical break with 8.6 inches of arm-side run, both above league average. His above-average extension, 61 in 2025 and 63 in 2026,
adds perceived velocity and makes the pitch especially dangerous when located at the top of the zone.
His curveball is arguably his most interesting pitch. At 86.8 mph with -1.4 inches of horizontal break and -2.2 inches of vertical break, it plays like a modern “death ball,” (term coined by Tread Athletics) and its 112 Stuff+ grade per FanGraphs was the best in his arsenal. His sweeper also showed real swing-and-miss potential, posting a 28.6% whiff rate despite only 4.0% usage. The problem was not that Chandler lacked quality pitches; it was that his best breaking-ball options were barely used.
Chandler’s pitch mix expanded significantly from his brief 2025 debut to his first full MLB season. In 2025, over only 461 pitches, he was essentially a three-pitch pitcher: 54% four-seamer, 22.6% changeup, and 17.4% slider. In 2026, his arsenal became six pitches: 48.4% four-seamer, 20.7% slider, 14.3% changeup, 8.1% sinker, 4.5% curveball, and 4.0% sweeper.
That expansion did not automatically make him better. His four-seamer dropped from 54% to 48.4% usage, but its whiff rate fell from 30.8% to 22.2%, and its run value declined from -0.9 to -0.3 runs per 100 pitches. The changeup, which had been his best 2025
swing-and-miss pitch at 39.6%, saw its usage cut nearly in half to 14.3% while its whiff rate fell to 25.0%. His slider held steady at 20.7% usage, but its run value dropped from +5.6 to -0.2, suggesting its strong 2025 results were not fully sustainable.
Against right-handed hitters, Chandler’s fastball-heavy approach was more sustainable because he could attack the top of the zone and use the slider as a chase pitch. The four-seamer remained his primary pitch, while the slider and changeup gave him enough separation to keep righties from sitting on one look. However, his overall 22.2% whiff rate and 28.1% chase rate show that even righties were not expanding the zone enough for him to consistently finish at-bats.
Against left-handed hitters, the fastball became a much bigger issue. Chandler threw it around 50% of the time versus lefties, and it carried a -8 run value, a .357 wOBA, and a .397 xwOBA. Lefties were able to lay off poorly located fastballs and punish the ones over the plate, which contributed directly to his walk problem. His changeup was supposed to be the answer, but its whiff rate dropped from 39.6% in 2025 to 25.0% in 2026, leaving him without a dependable put away pitch against left-handed bats.
The most encouraging development came in August, when Chandler began incorporating a kick-change. The new pitch traded roughly one mph of velocity for significantly more drop and a different movement profile than his old changeup, giving him a better vertical tunnel off his riding four-seamer. That adjustment helped fuel his best stretch of the season: a 3.08 ERA over five August starts and 26.1 innings, with 24 strikeouts against 11 walks.
Chandler’s biggest issue was command. His walk rate jumped from an outstanding 3.2% in 2025 to 11.9% in 2026, while his strikeout rate fell from 25% to 20.8% and his overall whiff rate dropped from 30.3% to 22.2%. His average xERA of 4.30 ranked in just the 38th percentile, and his below-average fastball run value shows that hitters were not simply being fooled by velocity.
The late-inning pattern made the command issue more damaging. His walk rate stayed relatively stable through the first four innings, but it ballooned in the fifth, where he issued 20 walks in only 22.1 innings. That lack of efficiency prevented him from consistently reaching the sixth, and his third-time-through-the-order numbers were even worse, a .311 average, .430 OBP, and .874 OPS.
What does Chandler need to improve next year?
Fixing his walk rate.
With his BB% ballooning from 3.2% to 11.9% shows that command was a glaring issue, what drove the walks?
Poor fastball location. Chandler leaned heavily on his FS early in counts, but when he missed, hitters could lay off, or punish the subsequent strikes.
No dependable put away pitch: With decreasing whiff rates, even ahead in counts, Chandler struggled to put away hitters via the K, leading to deeper counts and higher BB rate.
Late Game struggles: With each inning passing, his BB% stayed similar until the 5th inning, ballooning to 20 BB in only 22.1 inn, nearly a walk per innings or 8+ walks per nine. With his struggles in the 5th, he rarely saw the 6th, which BB% still way above both league average and his normal totals.
Improving against lefties
The major criminal to his poor run value to lefties in his FS, throwing it around 50% of the time, and a -8 run value, basically meaning the FS gets hit and hit alot against lefties.
His FS had poor location, while talked about in the section about his BB%, but specifically, he used it a lot early in counts, with led him to get behind alot, forcing him into a more hitter friendly count, and more costly walks. His wOBA of .357 and xwOBA of .397 against lefties is very high.
No dependable putaway pitch. With declining whiff rates, Chandler struggled to finish hitters even when ahead, leading to deeper counts and more free passes. His changeup, normally a big weapon against leftys, regressed as a swing in miss pitch, not allowing him to capitalize on positive counts.
Other
Bad numbers against the 9 hole, a 865 ops with a .383 OBP was the second highest of anyone in the lineup besides the 2 hitter, with MLB league average OPS being .715-.720 and historically between .660-6.80, a .865 OPS is very inefficient, and puts base runners on for the top of the order.
As talked about a lot so far, his struggles late in the game are more apparent when seeing his third time through stats. While maybe pitchers face this problem, Candler gets bite a lot by the 3rd time through bug, with league average being
.265 batting average, .329 on-base percentage, .452 slugging percentage, and .780 OPS and chandlers stats being .311 AVG, .430 OBP and .444 SLUG for a .874 OPS, (Like facing Gabriel Moreno every AB)
His high struggles against the lineup 3rd time through heavily impacted his season and his stats
AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
54 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 1 | .315 | .383 | .481 | .865 |
How can Chandler Improve?
How can Chandler improve his walk rate?
Chandler needs to commit to a stricter FS location plan, more up in the zone, and glove side against lefties, and avoiding middle- middle or middle- low heaters, playing more towards his high IVB and velocity/ extension. It would also be beneficial to mix in more first pitch sliders or changeups, to both avoid falling behind, and first pitch FS being “jumped on.”
For his put away pitch, he can lead more towards both his Changeup, and his sweeper, as both have BA .200 and lower, and .263 or lower SLUG. This will lead to a higher K%, and eliminating deeper counts and intern lowering BB%
He needs better pitch efficiency earlier in outings so he is not forced into high-stress fifth-inning situations. Pittsburgh should also be quicker to pull him once his command or fastball location deteriorates, rather than letting one inning unravel. A shorter, cleaner outing pattern, attacking with his best located pitches and avoiding extended battles, would help him reach the sixth more consistently.
How can Chandler improve against lefties?
Reduce four-seam usage against lefties. He does not need to abandon the pitch, but he should cut it from roughly 50% to closer to 35–40% and reserve it for elevated locations, and matching his heat map closer to what it is with RHH.
Make the kick-change the primary lefty off speed pitch. His old changeup had a below-average swinging-strike rate, while the new kick-change has more drop and a different movement profile that should create better separation from the fastball.
Improve fastball-changeup tunneling. If the four-seam is consistently up and the kick-change is down, lefties must make a real height decision. If both finish middle, neither pitch protects the other.
Use the slider as a selective put away pitch. Rather than throwing it reactively after falling behind, he should use it in 0-2 and 1-2 counts to generate chases and avoid extending at-bats.
How can he improve his other flaws?
He can start by attacking the bottom of the order with strikes. He should not nibble against the nine-hole hitter, getting ahead early prevents the bottom of the lineup from reaching base and turning the lineup over. Use his best put away pitch earlier. Against weaker hitters, he should go directly to his best two-strike weapon, likely the kick-change or slider/ sweeper, rather than relying on fastball location alone.
Change sequencing the third time through. He cannot repeat the same fastball-heavy pattern; he should lead with different pitches, alter locations, and use his kick-change/slider more aggressively once hitters have seen his fastball twice.
Shorten exposure to the third time through. If his command is still shaky, Pittsburgh may need to limit him to two times through the order more often, especially against tougher lineups. His 2.26 WHIP and 20 walks in the third trip show that continuing deeper was actively hurting him.
Improve early-count efficiency. If he can throw more competitive strikes in the first two trips through the lineup, he will face fewer hitters a third time and preserve more margin for the innings he does pitch.
Comparable pitchers: Chase Burns and Hunter Greene
If Chandler hits his upside in 2027, the comparison is Chase Burns’ 2026 breakout with Hunter Greene’s developmental path. Greene shows how a high-velocity righty cleans up command and sequencing over time; Burns shows what happens when that profile clicks immediately.
15-3, 2.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 185 strikeouts, and 56 walks in 154.1 innings
Trait | Bubba Chandler upside | Chase Burns | Hunter Greene |
Fastball | 98–99 mph with premium carry; becomes a true top-of-zone weapon. | 98.1 mph with 18.6 inches of induced vertical break; one of MLB’s best fastballs. | Upper-90s to 100 mph with elite ride; long his defining pitch. |
Slider | Hard slider becomes a selective chase/put away pitch. | 90.5 mph, 47% whiff rate, .133 AVG against; a true difference-maker. | Hard slider that became a major weapon as command improved. |
Changeup | Kick-change becomes a legitimate lefty chase pitch. | Limited changeup usage; fastball-slider carries the workload. | More established changeup, useful for tunneling and lefties. |
Command | Walk rate drops toward Burns’ level; fewer middle-middle fastballs. | 56 walks in 154.1 innings; elite command-over-control execution. | Early-career control issues, then improved through better zone rate and sequencing. |
2027 upside | 15-3, 2.80–3.00 ERA, 1.10–1.20 WHIP, 180–190 K, 50–60 BB. | 15-3, 2.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 185 K, 56 BB. | Frontline-starter development arc, with improved efficiency and durability. |
Why Burns is the ceiling: Burns is the best-case version of Chandler’s profile. Like Chandler, he leans on an upper-90s four-seamer with elite induced vertical break, but he executes it more consistently and pairs it with a slider that functions as a true swing-and-miss pitch. Burns’ slider produced a 47% whiff rate and a .133 opponent average, while Chandler still lacked a reliable putaway pitch when ahead in counts.
How Chandler reaches Burns’ upside: He does not need to copy Burns’ extreme fastball-slider usage. Instead, he should learn Burns’ execution standard: locate the four-seamer at the top of the zone, avoid middle-middle fastballs, and develop one secondary pitch he trusts with two strikes. For Chandler, that should be the kick-change against lefties and the slider in chase counts.
Why Greene is the path: Greene is the developmental comparison because his early-career issues looked more like Chandler’s: electric stuff, inconsistent command, and difficulty turning raw talent into efficient outings. Greene improved by locating his fastball better, making hitters respect his secondaries, and avoiding repetitive patterns, not by suddenly adding velocity.
How Chandler reaches the upside through Greene’s path: Chandler should reduce predictable early-count four-seamers, elevate the fastball more consistently, and build a real tunnel between the four-seamer and kick-change. He also needs to manage the third time through the order better; his .916 OPS and 19 walks in 21.2 innings in that split show that repeating the same approach became a major problem.
What Chandler must fix: Fixing his walk rate, Chandler’s BB% ballooning from 3.2% to 11.9% against lefties shows command was the central issue. His ball rate rose from 34% to 37%, while his swinging-strike rate fell from 13.4% to 10.3%, leading to deeper counts and more walks.
How he can improve to hit the upside: He needs to cut his walk total from 80 to roughly 50–60, matching Burns’ 2026 control level. That means fewer competitive-zone misses, fewer predictable early-count four-seamers, and more first-pitch kick-changes or sliders.
Improving against lefties: Chandler’s four-seamer carried a -8 run value against lefties while being thrown around 50% of the time, producing a .357 wOBA and .397 xwOBA. His changeup also regressed as a whiff pitch, leaving him without a dependable answer once ahead.
How he can improve to hit the upside: He should reduce four-seam usage against lefties from about 50% to 35–40%, elevate it only when located, and make the kick-change his primary lefty chase pitch. Burns survives against lefties because his slider is a genuine swing-and-miss weapon; Chandler needs the kick-change to become that pitch, with the slider used selectively in two-strike counts.
Developing a put away pitch: Burns’ slider was the engine of his breakout: it generated massive whiff rates and allowed him to finish hitters before counts spiraled. Chandler’s issue was not stuff—it was that his secondaries did not consistently close out at-bats, so positive counts turned into long battles and walks.
How he can improve to hit the upside: Chandler needs to turn the kick-change into a true two-strike weapon. If he can locate it down-and-away or below the zone, it gives him the vertical separation needed to create chases from his riding fastball. The slider should then function as a selective put away pitch, not a fallback after falling behind.
Handling the third time through: Chandler was crushed the third time through the order, allowing a .330 AVG, .443 OBP, .473 SLG, and .916 OPS in 21.2 innings. Burns’ simpler fastball-slider identity works because he executes both pitches well enough to remain dangerous even when hitters have seen them.
How he can improve to hit the upside: Chandler must change sequencing the third time through—leading with the kick-change or slider more often, varying fastball heights, and avoiding the same early-count fastball pattern. If his command is still unstable by that point, Pittsburgh should shorten his leash rather than repeatedly exposing him to the lineup a third time.
The 2027 upside season
If Chandler hits the upside, his 2027 would look like this:
- 15-3 record
- 2.80–3.00 ERA
- 1.10–1.20 WHIP
- 180–190 strikeouts
- 50–60 walks
- 155–170 innings
That is essentially a Burns-style breakout. Chandler already showed the ceiling against Toronto, striking out 11 with 22 whiffs in five innings when his fastball was up and his secondaries were below the zone. If he repeats that execution consistently, rather than only in his best starts, the Burns-level outcome becomes his realistic upside rather than just a projection.
2027 Outlook
A realistic 2027 breakout would not require Chandler to become a completely different pitcher; it would require him to execute his existing arsenal more consistently. If his walk rate falls from 11.9% to the 7–8% range, his four-seamer regains its top-of-zone effectiveness, and the kick-change becomes a true lefty weapon, he could jump from a promising but inefficient starter into a genuine frontline arm. A strong season could look something like 175–185 innings, a 3.20–3.50 ERA, 170–185 strikeouts, and 55–70 walks. His absolute ceiling remains higher, something closer to a 2.80–3.00 ERA and 180–190 strikeouts. Still, that outcome depends on him turning the kick-change and sweeper into dependable put away pitches rather than occasional weapons.
Future Outlook
Chandler’s long-term future is still exceptionally promising because the foundational traits are rare: upper-90s velocity, above-average extension, premium fastball carry, and multiple breaking balls with real swing-and-miss potential. If the kick-change develops into a consistent primary off speed pitch, he could evolve from a fastball-slider righty into a complete four-pitch starter with credible answers for both handedness. His best-case outcome is a durable No. 1 or high-end No. 2 starter who attacks with an elevated four-seamer, buries lefties with the kick-change, and finishes hitters with the sweeper or curveball.
Even if the command never becomes elite, Chandler’s floor is still that of a valuable mid rotation starter because his velocity and extension give him a usable baseline. But his 2026 season showed the difference between having good pitches and having a repeatable plan. If Pittsburgh helps him simplify his approach, lean into his best movement profiles, and avoid overexposing his fastball to lefties, Chandler has the tools to become one of the most exciting young starters in the National League.
Citations:
“Bubba Chandler Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics.” Baseballsavant.Com, baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bubba-chandler-696149?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb. Accessed 13 Oct. 2026.
“Bubba Chandler 2026 MLB Splits.” ESPN, ESPN Internet Ventures, www.espn.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/4683325/bubba-chandler. Accessed 13 Oct. 2026.
“Chase Burns Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics.” Baseballsavant.Com, baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/chase-burns-695505?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb. Accessed 13 Oct. 2026.
“Bubba Chandler Stats, War, Projections: Pirates P: Fangraphs.” FanGraphs Baseball, FanGraphs, www.fangraphs.com/players/bubba-chandler/29868/stats/pitching. Accessed 13 Oct. 2026.
“Hunter Green Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics.”
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/hunter-greene-668881?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb. Accessed 13 Oct. 2026.
Comments