Revisiting my Top 5 Pitchers from the Offseason

Looking Back at My Top 5 Pitchers

Matthias Alden

September 2026

When I ranked the top five pitchers of the 2025–26 offseason, I focused on a mix of upside, recent production, injury history, stuff, postseason value, and the role each pitcher could fill for a contender. With most of the 2026 regular season now in the books, it is a good time to revisit those evaluations.

The original list was:

1. Dylan Cease

2. Framber Valdez

3. Michael King

4. Ranger Suárez

5. Brandon Woodruff

The biggest lesson from the class is that free-agent pitching evaluations cannot be reduced to ERA or strikeouts alone. Cease turned a down run-prevention season into a Cy Young-caliber rebound. King converted health uncertainty into a nearly full workload. Suárez proved that his contact-management profile travels. Valdez’s innings remained valuable, but the expected boost from a better defense did not materialize. Woodruff again looked excellent when available—but availability remained the central issue.

Dylan Cease: Mostly right, perhaps too cautious

2026 to date: Toronto Blue Jays — 11–5, 2.38 ERA, 166.1 innings, 236 strikeouts, 1.06 WHIP. Toronto signed Cease to a seven-year, $210 million deal in November 2025.

My central argument about Cease was correct: despite the ugly 4.55 ERA in 2025, he was still the pitcher with the best pure stuff and the clearest path to becoming the best starter in the class. I emphasized his strikeout ability, slider, favorable expected metrics, age, and uninterrupted record of taking the ball.

That upside has shown up in a massive way. Through 166.1 innings, Cease has paired a 2.38 ERA with 236 strikeouts. His 35.3% strikeout rate, .190 expected batting average allowed, 31.9% hard-hit rate, and 2.80 xERA show that this has not simply been a fortunate ERA run. He has been missing bats at an elite level while suppressing contact more effectively than he did in 2025.

The strongest part of my original evaluation was the belief that the gap between Cease’s 2025 ERA and his underlying talent was meaningful. In 2025, he owned a 4.55 ERA but a 3.46 xERA, with a 29.8% strikeout rate. The 2026 version has taken that foundation and improved almost every major outcome: fewer barrels, less hard contact, more strikeouts, and dramatically better run prevention.

Where I was slightly too cautious was the concern that his mostly fastball-slider approach would make him especially vulnerable to regression. That concern was reasonable—pitch mix concentration can create narrower margins—but Cease’s 2026 season has shown that elite versions of those two pitches can still carry an ace workload. Instead of merely being a strong 1A/No. 2 starter for the next three or four years, he has looked like exactly the rotation-leading ace Toronto paid for.

Verdict: Correct. I had him as the market-setter because of his ceiling. In hindsight, he was not just arguably the best available pitcher—he has been the best performer from this group in 2026.

Framber Valdez: Right on the floor, wrong on the outcome

2026 to date: Detroit Tigers — 10–10, 4.01 ERA, 163.2 innings, 121 strikeouts, 1.36 WHIP. Detroit signed him for three years and $115 million.

My Valdez section correctly highlighted the reasons teams would still value him: durability, a history of high-end performance, postseason experience, and one of the game’s strongest ground-ball profiles. I also specifically noted concerns around his declining strikeout rate, rising walk rate, and harder contact.

The 2026 numbers suggest that the concerns mattered more than I anticipated. Valdez has continued to carry a real workload—more than 160 innings—and that should not be dismissed in an era when reliable rotation volume is scarce. But his 4.01 ERA and 1.36 WHIP fall short of the upper-echelon production I projected. His strikeout output, 121 in 163.2 innings, also represents a substantial step down from the 187 strikeouts he accumulated in 192 innings during 2025.

The biggest miss in my original analysis was probably the defensive fit argument. I wrote that a strong defensive team such as Detroit could potentially maximize Valdez because of how frequently he puts the ball on the ground. Detroit did sign him, but the change of environment has not unlocked another level. The Tigers received innings, but not the Cy Young-adjacent production that a three-year, $115 million commitment was designed to buy.

That does not mean the original ranking was unreasonable. Valdez entered free agency as one of the safest bets in the class to provide rotation stability. He has done that to some degree. But his outcome shows the difference between “dependable innings eater with a strong track record” and “frontline starter who can consistently dominate.” In 2026, he has looked more like the former.

Verdict: Mixed, leaning incorrect. I correctly identified the risk factors, but I gave too much weight to his track record and the possibility that a better defensive fit would restore his peak value.

Michael King: Right about the rebound, wrong about the shape

2026 to date: San Diego Padres — 11–9, 3.03 ERA, 175.0 innings, 148 strikeouts, 1.15 WHIP. He returned to San Diego on a one-year, $22 million agreement that includes player options for 2027 and 2028.

My view of King was that his 2025 injury-shortened season should not erase what he had shown in 2024 or during his healthy early-2025 stretch. I argued that, if healthy, he could return to being a front-line starter and that his prior bullpen experience gave him a useful floor and flexibility.

The health part of that forecast has worked. King has made 30 starts and thrown 175 innings, a major accomplishment after he was limited to 73.1 innings in 2025. More importantly, he has produced a 3.03 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP—results that make him one of the more successful starting-pitcher bets of the offseason.

However, the way he has produced is different from what I expected. I projected a return toward his dominant, strikeout-heavy 2024 form, when he struck out 201 hitters in 173.2 innings. This season, King has only 148 strikeouts in 175 innings, and his 20.8% strikeout rate is far below the swing-and-miss profile associated with his best work. Meanwhile, Statcast lists a 4.43 xERA, a notable warning sign that his 3.03 ERA may overstate how well he has actually pitched.

So King has been good, but he has not necessarily been dominant in the way I projected. His 2026 season looks more like a highly useful rotation stabilizer who has benefited from better sequencing, contact suppression, and run prevention than his peripheral indicators would predict. That still has considerable value—especially after an injury-marred walk year—but it is different from becoming a top-three or top-four starter in baseball.

Verdict: Mostly correct. I was right to bet on his recovery, his innings rebound, and his ability to remain a quality starter. I was too optimistic about a full return to his prior strikeout ceiling and elite underlying performance.

Ranger Suárez: The most accurate projection

2026 to date: Boston Red Sox — 7–4, 3.33 ERA, 137.2 innings, 130 strikeouts, 1.19 WHIP. Boston signed him to a five-year, $130 million contract, including a mutual option for 2031.

My Suárez projection was straightforward: a team signing him should expect roughly 150–170 innings, an ERA in the low-to-mid 3.00s, a strong No. 2 or No. 3 starter, reliable contact management, and the potential for postseason value.

That is almost exactly what he has been. Suárez has posted a 3.33 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP across 137.2 innings, putting him on track for the general innings and ERA range I laid out. He has not suddenly become a high-velocity, overpowering ace. Instead, he has continued to succeed through the same skills that made him attractive in the first place: limiting damaging contact, avoiding excessive walks, working efficiently, and providing stable left-handed rotation production.

The landing spot was also one of the teams I mentioned. I listed the Red Sox among the potential fits, and Boston ultimately committed five years and $130 million to him. That deal reflects how the league viewed Suárez: not necessarily as the flashy top-of-market name, but as a pitcher with a dependable profile and enough upside to merit a long-term commitment.

One small caveat is that the original expectation of 150–170 innings still depends on how the rest of the season unfolds. But his performance level itself has landed directly in the range I forecasted. He has been a strong No. 2/3 starter rather than a Cy Young favorite, and that is exactly what I said teams should be paying for.

Verdict: Correct. Suárez has been the cleanest example of a projection matching reality: good ERA, solid workload, effective command, and a valuable mid-rotation-to-upper-rotation role.

Brandon Woodruff: Right about the talent, wrong to hope past the injuries

2026 to date: Milwaukee Brewers — 2–2, 2.98 ERA, 45.1 innings, 47 strikeouts, 0.84 WHIP across nine starts.

My Woodruff analysis was built around the most obvious contradiction in the entire class: when he pitches, he often looks like one of the best starters available; the problem is whether he can remain on the mound long enough for a club to truly plan around him.

That assessment has unfortunately held up almost perfectly. The production has been excellent: a 2.98 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts against only 10 walks in 45.1 innings. Those results support my claim that he still has Cy Young-level per-inning ability and can miss bats, limit baserunners, and dominate lineups when physically available.

But the workload tells the other half of the story. Woodruff has made just nine starts and thrown 45.1 innings. In the original piece, I wrote that a team should think of him as an arm whose 60–100 innings might matter most in an October run rather than as a conventional 180- to 200-inning rotation anchor. That has been closer to the truth than the optimistic possibility I floated of a healthy multi-year stretch.

The key adjustment I would make now is sharper wording. I called him a pitcher teams could use to form one of baseball’s best one-two punches. That remains possible on a rate basis, but a team cannot reliably build a rotation around a pitcher who repeatedly produces ace-level performance in limited volume. His value needs to be evaluated more like a high-impact, workload-managed starter whose innings are extremely valuable—not as a normal co-ace.

Verdict: Correct on the diagnosis, but overly optimistic on the ceiling. The talent evaluation was right. The durability concern should have carried even more weight in his overall ranking.

What I Got Right

Several themes from the original blog aged well:

• Cease’s underlying ability was real. His 2025 ERA overstated his struggles, and his 2026 rebound proves why teams paid for the strikeout upside.

• King’s injuries were not necessarily a permanent talent decline. He has returned to a 30-start, 175-inning role with a 3.03 ERA.

• Suárez’s profile was bankable. He did not need dominant velocity or elite strikeout totals to remain a valuable starter, and Boston has received the kind of production it paid for.

• Woodruff’s ability was never the question. His 2026 rate stats reinforce that; the workload remains the deciding factor.

• Valdez’s declining strikeout and command indicators deserved concern. His results have moved closer to a solid-but-unspectacular starter than a true top-of-the-market ace.

What I Would Change

If I were rewriting the ranking today, I would place more emphasis on three factors.

First, I would separate ceiling from expected value more clearly. Cease and Woodruff had the type of raw ability that could win a postseason series, but Woodruff’s health profile made him much harder to value as a long-term rotation cornerstone.

Second, I would be more skeptical of assuming that a strong defense can fix a declining pitcher. Valdez’s ground-ball rate made Detroit logical on paper, but a pitcher’s strikeouts, walks, contact quality, and ability to miss bats still matter more than the defense behind him.

Third, I would treat injury recovery differently depending on the pitcher. King’s 2025 issues proved more manageable than expected because he returned to volume. Woodruff’s history, by contrast, continued to shape his season even while his on-field performance remained excellent.

Final Re-Ranking

Based on the information available through mid-September 2026, it is not simply hindsight about talent, but actual performance, workload, and value, the order would look like this:

Rank	Pitcher	Why
1	Dylan Cease	He has combined ace-level run prevention, elite strikeouts, strong contact suppression, and a meaningful workload for Toronto.
2	Ranger Suárez	He has delivered the reliable No. 2/3 starter profile Boston expected, with a 3.33 ERA and steady workload.
3	Michael King	He has made 30 starts and produced a 3.03 ERA, though his lower strikeout rate and 4.43 xERA temper the evaluation.
4	Brandon Woodruff	His rate production remains outstanding, but nine starts and 45.1 innings make workload the unavoidable limitation.
5	Framber Valdez	He has supplied innings, but his 4.01 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and reduced strikeout output leave him behind the other four so far.

The original article was strongest when it identified why each pitcher could succeed or fail. Cease’s upside was real, King’s health was the swing factor, Suárez’s floor was valuable, Valdez’s peripherals created risk, and Woodruff’s health history could not be ignored. The major revision is that I would now rank durability and sustainable underlying performance more heavily than pure upside, except in Cease’s case, where the upside has become reality.