Devin Williams bound for a bounce back in 2026?
Devin Williams is poised to embark on an exciting new chapter as he enters the 2026 season with the New York Mets, a dramatic shift after his tenure with the New York Yankees in 2025. This move marks a significant change, as Williams now dons the blue and orange of the Mets. His new contract is a lucrative three-year deal worth $51 million, translating to an impressive annual salary of $17 million. In this article, we will explore the implications of Williams’ arrival for the Mets and the expectations surrounding his performance as he seeks to make a substantial impact in Queens.
To start, let's take a look at his 2024 campaign and his 2025 campaign to see the differences and see what may have caused the rough year. The overall reason that Williams struggled in 2025 was an increase in WHIP and Barrel Percentage.
Devin Williams’ WHIP rose in 2025 largely because hitters were making far better and more damaging contact than in previous years. His exit-velocity percentile plummeted from 94 to 44, showing that opponents were consistently hitting the ball harder, and his barrel-rate percentile dropped from 65 to 32, reflecting a sharp decline in how often he avoided squared-up contact. On top of that, his actual barrel percentage jumped by 3.9%, meaning hitters weren’t just making quality contact more often—they were doing so at a rate that directly produces extra-base hits and more balls finding gaps. This translated into significantly more hits allowed, with his batting average against rising by .052 and his zone BA increasing by .064, evidence that pitches in the strike zone were punished far more frequently than before. All of these factors, more hard contact, more barrels, and higher hit rates, combined with his existing walk issues to push his WHIP noticeably higher in 2025.
Let's take a look at how both his fastball and change up took a dip in 2025
Change-up: Devin Williams' best pitch and his famous “airbender” was not as good as it has been in recent
years, taking a jump in BA xBA and a big jump in SLG/xSLG. Combined with this was increases in his fastball slash line as well. What caused the struggle in these categories comes from a much higher barrel rate close to 10% and a decline of almost half of his his run value from 2023 with his total from 20 to 10. Whiff rates also down to under 40% for the first time in his career since 2019 and chase contact above 50 percent. 2023
2025. As we see his in zone xBA taking a major decline and much high averages from 2023. I believe this has stemmed from his change in arm slot from 24 degrees to 21 degrees in 2025. This drop in arm slot has changed his change up movement profile a little bit, leading to a higher triple slash.
Other metric changes.
Hit rate
EV percentile down from 94 to 44
Brl% from 65 percentile to 32
BA and zBA up .052 and .064 from previous year
ERA Increase
Pitcher Running Game
SB + BK from 1 to 9
Net Bases Prev to -5
Homers
Homers increased from 8 in 2022-2024 to 5 in 2025 alone
xHR of 6.1 from 1.2
xSLG
.320 SLG up from .227
.314 xSLG up from .204
Hard Hit percentage up 3.3%
Avg EV up 5.3 percent
Barrel Percentage up 3.9 percent
Devin Williams’ ERA spiked in 2025 because he not only allowed more damaging contact, but also struggled in areas that directly create runs. His pitcher-running game deteriorated sharply, with stolen bases plus balks jumping from 1 to 9, and his net bases allowed on the bases shifting from +1 to –5, meaning opponents created far more free advancement against him. At the same time, his ability to limit power collapsed: after giving up only 8 total home runs from 2022–2024, he surrendered 5 homers in 2025 alone, supported by a massive jump in expected home runs from 1.2 to 6.1. Hitters weren’t just clearing the fence more, they were driving the ball with far more authority overall. His slugging allowed jumped from .227 to .320, and his expected SLG increased from .204 to .314, showing that even contact that didn’t become extra-base hits was still dangerous. This matched the underlying batted-ball profile: his hard-hit rate rose 3.3%, his average exit velocity climbed by 5.3%, and his barrel percentage increased by 3.9%. Taken together, these changes meant hitters were hitting him harder, elevating the ball more effectively, stealing more bases, and capitalizing on mistakes, all of which translated directly into a higher ERA in 2025.
Devin Williams’ 2025 season got off to a rough start, and the March/April numbers illustrate just how far he had fallen out of rhythm. Across 10 innings, he surrendered 12 hits, 8 walks, and 10 earned runs, resulting in a 9.00 ERA and a 1.25 K/BB ratio, clear indicators that both his command and his ability to finish at-bats were severely compromised. His strike percentage of 59%, the lowest of the season, shows that he was struggling to consistently put pitches in the zone, forcing him to labor through counts and often fall behind hitters early. This lack of command also contributed to a ballooning API (average pitches per inning) of 21.7, signaling that Williams was expending far more effort than usual to navigate each inning, and often digging himself into deep counts that allowed hitters to stay aggressive.
The consequences of these early struggles were compounded by other factors. Traffic on the bases was unusually high, with runners frequently reaching scoring position and forcing Williams to pitch under pressure in critical moments. He blew four saves in just the first month, reflecting both a lack of sharp execution in high-leverage situations and the mental strain of trying to regain form in front of a new team and high expectations. Mechanically, subtle inconsistencies—release point deviations, timing issues, and decreased fastball command—were evident, resulting in hittable pitches that batters punished consistently.
More than just poor outcomes, the March/April stretch highlighted a broader issue: Williams was not only struggling physically but also mentally, trying to regain confidence while under the intense scrutiny of early-season performance and media attention. Hitters were routinely ahead in counts, putting additional pressure on him to throw strikes in challenging situations. The combination of lost command, elevated traffic, inefficient pitch usage, and mounting mental pressure created a perfect storm that set the stage for a season-long battle with ERA and WHIP, underscoring how far the early 2025 version of Williams had drifted from the dominant form he had displayed in previous seasons.
2. Mid-season comeback (June)
June was not just a rebound month for Devin Williams; it was clear evidence that his elite reliever talent was still very much intact. Over 9.2 innings, he delivered one of the most impressive stretches of his 2025 season, allowing only 5 hits, no walks, and just 1 earned run, resulting in a 0.93 ERA. The absence of walks was particularly significant; it demonstrated a complete transformation in his command. His strike rate surged to 70.7%, the highest he achieved all year, indicating that he was consistently getting ahead in counts and forcing hitters to expand their zones. This improved efficiency was also reflected in his average of 15.2 pitches per inning, his second-lowest monthly mark, showing that he was controlling plate appearances early on, rather than grinding through deep counts as he did in April and July.
This version of Williams resembled a two-time Reliever of the Year more than the inconsistent pitcher seen earlier in the season. Hitters struggled not only to elevate his pitches but also to generate competitive contact. His fastball was consistently placed in the strike zone, which restored the full effectiveness of his Airbender changeup. With hitters respecting the fastball again, the changeup regained its late fade and depth, resulting in weaker swings, more defensive contact, and several early-count outs that kept innings clean. Mechanically, his release point tightened, his tempo improved, and his command patterns stabilized—subtle signs that his feel for the baseball had returned.
In short, June was a clear reminder that Williams' struggles were not due to diminished ability, but rather to inconsistency. When his fastball command fell into place, everything else in his arsenal improved, and the dominance that characterized his peak seasons re-emerged almost immediately.
3. Why 2026 will be better for Devin Williams.
Even after a rough year for Williams in 2025, the outlook for him is still bright and can easily return to peak performance. While getting hit harder than usual, he carried a .195 xBA at the end of the year paired with a 3.09 xERA much lower then both outcomes. Devin Williams’ changeup is still one of the top in the game at 94 percentile and 7 run value paired with an above average MLB fastball that has been in the 70 to upper 80s percentile in his career. We can see how Williams' chase, whiff, and K percentages have all stayed above 97 percentile. The dominance in these 3 metrics point to a substantial turnaround in the 2026 campaign.
As we discussed, his biggest change this year was his Avg exit velo rising from 84.2 mph to 89.5mph and going from 99th percentile all the way down to 44. This can be fixed with a change to his original arm slot to produce softer contact especially on in zone swings and letting better defensive results. The Mets’ defense while not better than the the Yankees in 2025 based on Fangraphs Def. (6.4 to -0.3) does see a major upgrade with the departure of Pete Alonso the Orioles. The Mets’ did have the better DRS as well with a positive 7 to a -11 for the Yankees. With an increase of soft contact and better defensive play around the diamond we can expect a drop in ERA and a boost in performance for Devin Willaims’
In Queens Devin Williams is expected to take closer duties day one, while he had this expectation in the Bronx that quickly fell out when started to struggle. His struggles led to different situations for Williams involving getting into the game with inherited runners, and leaving them on when he would exit. For the Mets’ if he takes the closer role as expected inherited runners will not be an issue as instead of having 7 extra runs from his left on and having a 64% stranding rate when coming into the game, way better than what he was given from relievers behind him. Getting his own clean inning again will limit his runners from inherited and in turn lowering his ERA.
Overall, I believe Devin Williams will outperform the projections laid out by both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. Firstly, I believe the right-hander will maintain a slightly lower workload from last year and tick down to just 60 innings for the 2026 season. Secondly, in this case, I disagree with the projections of both the closer’s ERA and K/9. I believe his metrics point to Williams having a sub 3.00 ERA and a miraculous 15 K/9.
Games | Innings | K/9 | ERA | Fip | Whip | BB/9 | HR/9 |
58 | 60.0 | 15.2 | 2.85 | 2.25 | .9500 | 3.85 | 0.55 |
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